Working Papers

Equilibrium Effects of Targeted Cost-Sharing in the Market for Medical Services 

   Work in Progress


The Welfare Impact of Surprise Medical Bills

For Whom is the Price Salient? An Empirical Model of Healthcare Demand

Abstract: In canonical empirical models of demand, the regression coefficient on price is typically interpreted as the price elasticity in the population. However, when prices are nonsalient due to shrouding, confusion, or a lack of information, the interpretation of this coefficient is much murkier. The market for medical services is one area in which prices largely exhibit these characteristics, and thus, a model of demand that takes account of this is useful. I develop an empirical model of health care demand that allows for variation in individuals' attention to prices. I estimate the model using a large panel data set which includes comprehensive information on families and their medical service utilization. Machine learning methods are leveraged to estimate underlying ``true'' prices faced by individuals, and a latent class econometric specification is used to fit the model to the data. The estimates are used to analyze the role of salience in affecting both quantity used and prices paid by consumers. Finally, I examine counterfactual simulations with full-attention consumers and find leftward shifts in the distributions of both quantity and price.

Fluency Theory of Economic Choice

Abstract: Research in psychology and economics suggests that the conservation and allocation of cognitive resources plays a substantial role in human decision-making processes. One manifestation of this principle is that individuals tend to focus too little on consequences that lack fluency or are difficult to process. In this paper, I develop a generally applicable theory of choice in which the decision-maker underweights consequences that lack fluency. I then consider a number of environments in which fluency is likely to be an important factor affecting choice such as insurance and financial markets. I also characterize profit-maximizing pricing contracts in the presence of fluency effects, and discuss real-world examples of such contracts.